{"id":568205,"date":"2024-01-05T09:35:16","date_gmt":"2024-01-05T09:35:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/?p=568205"},"modified":"2024-06-11T06:55:36","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T06:55:36","slug":"these-events-create-bitcoin-crash-march-hayes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/news\/these-events-create-bitcoin-crash-march-hayes\/","title":{"rendered":"These Events Will Create A Bitcoin Crash In March: Arthur Hayes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, in his latest essay, presents a foreboding prediction for the Bitcoin market in March, anticipating a severe correction of 30-40%. His detailed analysis<\/a>, rooted in a deep understanding of market dynamics, outlines the complexities and driving factors behind this expected crash, respectively healthy but deep correction.<\/p>\n

Hayes begins his discourse with a cautionary reminder of the nascent state of the crypto bull market<\/a>, warning enthusiasts not to be overly carried away. “The crypto bull market is in its early stages, and we must not get carried away with our enthusiasm,” he says, highlighting the uncertain journey towards the inevitable collapse of the fiat financial system<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Why The Bitcoin Price Could Fall 40% In March<\/h2>\n

His prediction revolves around three key financial events and indicators converging in March. Hayes first points to the anticipated decline in the Reverse Repo Program<\/a> (RRP) Balance to a critical level of $200 billion, a scenario he believes will trigger market anxiety about future sources of dollar liquidity. He describes this threshold as a moment of reckoning, \u201cWhen this number gets close to zero… the market will wonder what is next,” underscoring the gravity of this anticipated development.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Analysis: Ascending Parallel Channel Pattern Points To $57,000 Target<\/a><\/div>\n

The second pivotal factor is the fate of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which is due to expire on March 12th. Hayes portrays this as a significant test for the financial system, speculating on the decision-making process of the US Treasury in the face of potential liquidity crises among banks. He articulates the market’s anticipatory stance, suggesting that “the market will start getting inquisitive many weeks before about whether or not the banks will continue receiving this lifeline.”<\/p>\n

The final piece in Hayes’ forecast is the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 20th, where a rate cut<\/a> is expected. This decision, in Hayes’ view, is crucial for setting market expectations and influencing the dynamics surrounding dollar liquidity provision by the Fed and the US Treasury Department.<\/p>\n

Hayes then delves deeper into his tactical trading strategy in response to these events, detailing his plans to short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts. He articulates his approach, saying, “I will look to buy a sizable put option position on Bitcoin around this time,” signaling his preparedness to leverage the anticipated market shift.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Reclaims $43,000 On Rumor Of ETF Approval Tomorrow<\/a><\/div>\n

An important aspect of Hayes’ analysis is the potential impact of the US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). He argues that the anticipation of substantial fiat capital inflows into these spot ETFs<\/a> could initially propel Bitcoin’s price to soaring highs. However, he warns that this upsurge could be followed by a dramatic correction, exacerbated by a liquidity squeeze.<\/p>\n

“Imagine if the anticipation of hundreds of billions of fiat flowing into these ETFs at a future date propels Bitcoin above $60,000,” he says, illustrating the potential for a steep decline. Hayes explains that a market already heightened by ETF speculation would be particularly vulnerable to a sharp correction, potentially worsening the downturn to 30-40% in the event of a liquidity crunch.<\/p>\n

How Hayes Will Trade This Scenario<\/h2>\n

Hayes then shifts to discuss his tactical trading decisions in response to these indicators. He shares his plan to initially short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts, followed by a return to selling US Treasury bills and acquiring more Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. In explaining his approach, Hayes states, “I will look to buy a sizable put option position on Bitcoin around this time,” indicating his readiness to capitalize on the predicted market downturn.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, Hayes details his strategy for Bitcoin puts, explaining the rationale behind choosing puts expiring on June 28th and his approach to selecting the strike price. He emphasizes the importance of timing and market dynamics, noting, “I expect Bitcoin to experience a healthy […] correction from whatever level it has attained by early March.”<\/p>\n

In his conclusion, Hayes contemplates various scenarios that could play out differently from his predictions. He considers the implications of a slower decline in the RRP, a potential extension of the BTFP by Yellen, or alternative outcomes of the Fed’s March meeting. He notes that each of these scenarios could lead to different market behaviors, necessitating adjustments in his trading approach.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $43,940.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC trades just below $44,000, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from YouTube \/ What Bitcoin Did, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, in his latest essay, presents a foreboding prediction for the Bitcoin market in March, anticipating a severe correction of 30-40%. His detailed analysis, rooted in a deep understanding of market dynamics, outlines the complexities and driving factors behind this expected crash, respectively healthy but deep correction. Hayes begins his discourse with a cautionary reminder of the nascent state of the crypto bull market, warning enthusiasts not to be overly carried away. “The crypto bull market is in its early stages, and we must not get carried away with our enthusiasm,” he says, highlighting the uncertain journey towards the inevitable collapse of the fiat financial system. Why The Bitcoin Price Could Fall 40% In March His prediction revolves around three key financial events and indicators converging in March. Hayes first points to the anticipated decline in the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) Balance to a critical level of $200 billion, a scenario he believes will trigger market anxiety about future sources of dollar liquidity. He describes this threshold as a moment of reckoning, \u201cWhen this number gets close to zero… the market will wonder what is next,” underscoring the gravity of this anticipated development. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Analysis: Ascending Parallel Channel Pattern Points To $57,000 Target The second pivotal factor is the fate of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which is due to expire on March 12th. Hayes portrays this as a significant test for the financial system, speculating on the decision-making process of the US Treasury in the face of potential liquidity crises among banks. He articulates the market’s anticipatory stance, suggesting that “the market will start getting inquisitive many weeks before about whether or not the banks will continue receiving this lifeline.” The final piece in Hayes’ forecast is the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 20th, where a rate cut is expected. This decision, in Hayes’ view, is crucial for setting market expectations and influencing the dynamics surrounding dollar liquidity provision by the Fed and the US Treasury Department. Hayes then delves deeper into his tactical trading strategy in response to these events, detailing his plans to short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts. He articulates his approach, saying, “I will look to buy a sizable put option position on Bitcoin around this time,” signaling his preparedness to leverage the anticipated market shift. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Reclaims $43,000 On Rumor Of ETF Approval Tomorrow An important aspect of Hayes’ analysis is the potential impact of the US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). He argues that the anticipation of substantial fiat capital inflows into these spot ETFs could initially propel Bitcoin’s price to soaring highs. However, he warns that this upsurge could be followed by a dramatic correction, exacerbated by a liquidity squeeze. “Imagine if the anticipation of hundreds of billions of fiat flowing into these ETFs at a future date propels Bitcoin above $60,000,” he says, illustrating the potential for a steep decline. Hayes explains that a market already heightened by ETF speculation would be particularly vulnerable to a sharp correction, potentially worsening the downturn to 30-40% in the event of a liquidity crunch. How Hayes Will Trade This Scenario Hayes then shifts to discuss his tactical trading decisions in response to these indicators. He shares his plan to initially short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts, followed by a return to selling US Treasury bills and acquiring more Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. In explaining his approach, Hayes states, “I will look to buy a sizable put option position on Bitcoin around this time,” indicating his readiness to capitalize on the predicted market downturn. Furthermore, Hayes details his strategy for Bitcoin puts, explaining the rationale behind choosing puts expiring on June 28th and his approach to selecting the strike price. He emphasizes the importance of timing and market dynamics, noting, “I expect Bitcoin to experience a healthy […] correction from whatever level it has attained by early March.” In his conclusion, Hayes contemplates various scenarios that could play out differently from his predictions. He considers the implications of a slower decline in the RRP, a potential extension of the BTFP by Yellen, or alternative outcomes of the Fed’s March meeting. He notes that each of these scenarios could lead to different market behaviors, necessitating adjustments in his trading approach. At press time, BTC traded at $43,940. Featured image from YouTube \/ What Bitcoin Did, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":568206,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[230,428,506,679,6848,1119,1122],"class_list":["post-568205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-crash","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-price-prediction","tag-btc","tag-btc-price"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThese Events Will Create A Bitcoin Crash In March: Arthur Hayes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Arthur Hayes presented a foreboding prediction for the Bitcoin market in March, anticipating a severe correction of 30-40%.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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Through his extensive work with ktsl888.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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