This metric evaluates an asset’s price risk relative to historical data, providing a clearer picture of whether the current price levels are suitable for investment or if caution is warranted.

Toncoin Current Market Outlook

The NMR uses moving averages such as the 50-day and 374-day simple moving averages (SMA) along with logarithmic differences in price data to determine risk exposure.

A normalized score ranging between 0 and 1 indicates the level of risk, with values closer to zero suggesting a lower chance of price decline. According to Wedson, TON’s current placement in the green zone signals reduced risk, making it an appealing opportunity for investors seeking long-term exposure to the asset.

The analysis further suggests that while the medium and long-term risk profiles appear favorable, there remains a possibility for TON’s price to revisit historically significant support zones, often referred to as the “blue zone�?on price heatmaps.

Historically, these levels have served as price floors and accumulation points for investors expecting future price appreciation.

Open Interest Decline and Market Volatility Trends

Another CryptoQuant analyst, Maartunn, has added further context to Toncoin’s current market stance. According to his observations, TON’s Open Interest (OI) in the futures market has decreased to $141 million, marking the lowest level observed in the past nine months.

Open Interest refers to the total value of outstanding futures contracts and is a key indicator of market sentiment and participation.

A decline in Open Interest generally signals reduced market activity and lower volatility. While this trend is specific to TON, it reflects a broader pattern across the cryptocurrency market as the year comes to a close.

Historically, periods of low Open Interest are often followed by significant price movements, either upward or downward, once liquidity returns to the market.

Lower Open Interest combined with Toncoin’s favorable risk metrics may suggest a period of price stability and reduced volatility.

Risk-Adjusted Returns and Drawdowns: A Look at Unrealized Profits in TON

“The Open Interest and Funding Rates chart complements this narrative by highlighting steady open interest levels, which demonstrate sustained participation in the TON ecosystem.�?�?By @ShivenMoodley

More�?pic.twitter.com/DIpNabROij

�?CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 24, 2024

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Following a period of subdued activity, recent metrics suggest renewed confidence among investors, potentially signalling an upward trend.

At the center of this observation is the 90-day percent return metric, which has historically been a reliable indicator of market sentiment for Toncoin.

Toncoin Sees Renewed Positive Momentum: What Lies Ahead?

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost shared insights into the TON market in a recent post titled “TON Positive Momentum is Getting Back.�?/p>

The analyst noted that the 90-day percent return has turned positive, currently sitting at around 9%. While this is a modest figure compared to the explosive 200% gains seen during TON’s previous rally, it marks a shift that could lead to greater market optimism.

Notably, the 90-day percent return metric turning positive is a noteworthy development for Toncoin. This indicator reflects the average returns over a 90-day period, offering insights into investor behaviour and market sentiment.

Historically, positive returns have often preceded significant upward trends in TON’s price. While the current 9% return signals growing investor confidence, it remains a cautious indicator, suggesting potential gains without confirming a definitive rally.

Darkfost further reveals that during TON’s last significant rally, this metric soared beyond 200%, showcasing its capacity for really strong momentum when “conditions align.” He then emphasized that while this shift in returns is promising, it is too early to predict whether TON will replicate its previous performance.

TON Market Performance

Meanwhile, despite the positive momentum observed by Darkfost, Toncoin has been in a downward turn over the past week, dropping by nearly 10%.

Even in the past 24 hours, TON is still seeing a form of bearishness in its price as it currently trades at a price of $6.27 pushing its price further away from its all-time high of $8.25 recorded in back in June.

Particularly, at current market prices, TON is down by 24.2% from this peak and 3.1% in the past day. This decrease has also unsurprisingly affected the asset’s market cap which has decreased from over $17 billion seen earlier this month to now at $15.9 billion as of today.

TON’s daily trading volume has also plunged from over $1 million on December 10 to roughly $402.8 million as of today.

Regardless of this bearish performance, analysts seem to continue to be bullish on TON. In a recent analysis uploaded on X, The Moon Show revealed that as TON recently formed a symmetrical triangle on its 1-hour chart, a break to the upside could bring its price to trades as high as $7.55.

$TON is forming this 1h symmetrical triangle. If it breaks to the upside, the target is $7,55 pic.twitter.com/Fz9lbrxfSo

�?The Moon Show (@TheMoonCarl) December 5, 2024

Featured image created with dALL-E, Chart from TradingView