In a forecast issued via X on Friday, Timothy Peterson, a respected network economist and prominent author in the field of crypto analytics, predicted a near-certain rise of the Bitcoin price in the upcoming 8 months. “There’s a 90% chance Bitcoin will reach a new ATH before March 2025,” Peterson .
Peterson, known for his works including “Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value,” bases his forecast on the analytical framework detailed in his research paper titled “Lowest Price Forward: Why Bitcoin’s Price is Never Looking Back.” This paper, first published in 2019 and subsequently revised, introduces an innovative approach to understanding the Bitcoin price trajectory by focusing on its historical lowest prices, referred to as the “Never Look Back Price” (NLB). This NLB marks the last instance Bitcoin was traded at a particular price point, after which it never declined to that level again.
The methodology Peterson employs involves plotting these NLB data points on a lognormal scale adjusted by what he calls a “square root time” scale. This unconventional metric facilitates a deeper insight into the long-term growth patterns of Bitcoin, comparing them effectively with the diffusion processes observed in technology adoption across other domains.
Bitcoin Adoption Is Key
Central to Peterson’s analysis is Metcalfe’s Law, which he elaborates as “the value of the network is proportional to the square of the number of its users.” By applying this principle to Bitcoin, Peterson posits that as the digital currency’s user base expands, its intrinsic value is expected to increase exponentially. The paper details the use of a “square root time” model to align traditional time-value money concepts with the non-linear growth rates typical in network economics, presenting a compelling case for Bitcoin’s future valuation trajectories.
Bitcoin NLB | Source: X @nsquaredvalue
Peterson’s approach notably incorporates elements of conservative financial analysis by emphasizing the lowest historical prices of Bitcoin. “By focusing on the lowest price, the analysis inherently adopts a conservative stance, underestimating rather than overestimating value,” Peterson notes, which helps in “minimizing the risk of overvaluation and ensures that predictions do not overly rely on optimistic scenarios which might not materialize.”
In his paper, Peterson also addresses potential anomalies and market manipulations, which can distort price perceptions. By focusing on the NLB, the analysis filters out such distortions, offering a purer view of Bitcoin’s value appreciation unaffected by short-term speculative pressures or external shocks such as the COVID-induced market anomalies of 2021.
The prediction of a new all-time high before March 2025 reflects a broader sentiment of confidence in the sustained growth of the Bitcoin network by Peterson. As adoption curves continue to rise and network effects further entrench the value of Bitcoin, the forecast is not merely speculative but grounded in quantifiable and observed historical trends.
Peterson concludes, “As long as adoption continues, Bitcoin’s value — represented by its NLB price — will go up. If adoption is hindered, then the price will stagnate or drop.”
At press time, BTC traded at $58,192.
BTC struggles to overcome the 200-day EMA (blue), 1-day chart | Source:
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with ktsl888.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.
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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.
Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.
For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.
As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.
In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.
You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.
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