The first of two key events in a historic week for Bitcoin and financial markets worldwide is in the books.
While the CPI release was today at 8:30 ET, the last FOMC meeting of the year is scheduled to take place tomorrow featuring a new dot plot. CPI and FOMC coincide this week for the first time in a while, making it blockbuster week for Bitcoin.
And drum roll! The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November figures for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI a few minutes ago.
The expectation for CPI was 7.3% CPI (0.3% MoM), up from 7.7% (0.4% MoM) in October. Core CPI was expected at 6.1% (0.3% MoM), and was 6.3% (0.3% MoM) the previous month.
The new numbers for November read as follows: CPI fell 0.6% and was 7.1% in November. Thus, the CPI comes in 0.2% better than expected.
Core CPI was 6.0 % in November, falling by 0.3% from the previous month. Compared to the prediction, Core CPI is 0.1% below expectation.
Inflation dropping.
US November CPI +7.1% y/y vs +7.3% expected.
Send it all.
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker)
Already in the run-up to the print, the bulls pushed the Bitcoin price up in anticipation of positive data. The price stood at around $17,550 before the announcement.
After the release, the price reacted extremely bullish to the news along with the S&P 500. The latter is currently breaking out of a year-long downtrend.
S&P breaking out of its year-long downtrend?
— Will (@WClementeIII)
At press time, BTC was up almost 6% within the last 24 hours and was trading at $17,907. With a local high of $18,209, the price was rejected at the 2-month high of November 11 for the moment being.
Bitcoin price, 1-hour chart. Source:
What Will The Federal Reserve Do With The Data?
Prior to the CPI data release, the market was forecasting a rate hike of 50 bps with a 72% probability, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This is compared to a 28% probability of a 75 bps hike.
Within the next few hours, it remains to be seen how this rate will shift due to the CPI print. At press time, however, the probability of a 50 basis point jumped significantly to 79.4%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Today’s CPI print has thus further increased the probability for 50 bps tomorrow.
As NewsBTC reported, JP Morgan published an analysis before releasing the CPI data, according to which it gave the highest probability (50%) of a CPI print of 7.2% to 7.4%. As it turns out, JP Morgan was almost spot on with this assessment.
JP Morgan assigned only a 15% chance to the 7.1% outcome and predicted that this could mean increases of 4% to 5% for the S&P 500.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that today’s CPI print could mean a 2% to 3% increase for the S&P 500.
However, ultimately the FED will decide tomorrow what to do with the CPI data. As NewsBTC reported, it will also publish the dot plot, which reflects the central bank’s long-term expectations and outlook.
So whether the rally will find a continuation or abruptly stop will depend on whether the FED plays along.
Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with ktsl888.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.
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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.
Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.
For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.
As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.
In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.
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