The Head of Research at the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained why Bitcoin may be at risk of seeing a further drawdown.
Bitcoin Is Still On Verge Of Bear Market In This Indicator
In a new on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has discussed the latest trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. The “Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator” from CryptoQuant is an indicator based on the P&L Index.
The P&L Index combines a few popular BTC metrics related to profit and loss, so it sums up the market balance in one value. This indicator can ascertain whether the asset is going through a bullish or bearish period by comparing it against its 365-day moving average (MA).
When the cryptocurrency breaks above its 365-day MA, it can be assumed to be inside a bull market. Similarly, falling under this MA implies a transition toward a bear market.
The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, the actual metric of focus here, exists to make this pattern easier to follow; it keeps track of the distance between the P&L Index and its 365-day MA.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator over the past couple of years:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator had reached extreme values during the price all-time high (ATH) earlier in the year (colored in red).
At these levels, the P&L Index has quite the gap over its 365-day MA, so the cryptocurrency’s bull rally has become overheated. The graph shows that the metric also gave this signal on a few other occasions during the past two years, and each time, the asset’s price reached the top.
However, these previous tops weren’t enough to hold the market back in the long term, as the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator continued to maintain inside the bull territory (shaded in orange), where the P&L Index is above its 365-day MA.
However, bull market momentum has finally shown signs of running out, with the indicator even briefly plunging into the bear territory (light blue) during the recent price crash.
While the metric has recovered back into the bull region with the surge that BTC’s price has observed, it’s still very close to the neutral mark, meaning it can potentially sink back into the bearish zone shortly. Based on this trend, Moreno notes that BTC could still risk seeing a further correction.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has seen its recovery stall recently, as its price is still trading around the $58,500 mark.
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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