On-chain data shows Bitcoin is trading near a level that has historically acted as the boundary for the ‘euphoria’ phase of the market.
Bitcoin Is Not Far From This Long-Term Holder Cost Basis Level
According to the latest weekly report from , BTC’s recent consolidation has been near the historical boundary between the ‘equilibrium’ and ‘euphoria’ phases of the bull market.
The level in question multiplies the Realized Price for the long-term holders. The Realized Price here refers to an on-chain metric that, in short, keeps track of the average cost basis of the investors on the Bitcoin network.
When the cryptocurrency’s spot price is higher than this indicator, the investors can be assumed to be holding a net amount of unrealized profit. Similarly, the asset’s value under the metric could suggest the dominance of losses on the blockchain.
In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price, specifically for the “long-term holders” (LTH), is of interest. The LTHs refer to the Bitcoin investors who have held onto their coins for more than 155 days without having sold/transferred them on the network.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price of the LTHs, as well as a couple of its multiples, over the past decade:
Looks like the asset’s price is currently trading near the uppermost level | Source:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH Realized Price is trading around $21,800 right now. This is significantly lower than the current spot price of the asset, so this cohort would be holding considerable profits currently.
Statistically, the longer an investor holds their BTC stack, the less likely they become to sell the coins at any point. As such, the LTHs, who tend to hold for long periods, include the most resolute holders in the market.
This group doesn’t react easily to market events, like rallies or crashes. That said, when their gains grow very large, even these HODLers start getting tempted by the allure of profit-taking.
Historically, this has happened as the Bitcoin market has approached the ‘euphoria’ phase. Glassnode defines it as that market phase when the price breaks above the 3.5x multiplier of the LTH Realized Price.
This level currently stands at $76,400, just above the consolidation range the cryptocurrency has recently been stuck in. The chart shows that during the past two bull runs, the asset’s price blew up when it broke past this level.
It remains to be seen how long Bitcoin takes to breach this boundary to escape from the current ‘equilibrium’ phase and fill investors with euphoria.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has declined toward the lower end of its consolidation range during the past few weeks, as its price is now trading around $61,000.
The price of the coin appears to have been riding a downtrend recently | Source:
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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