Bitcoin MVRV Momentum Has Seen A Bullish Crossover Recently

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed the recent trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. The “MVRV Ratio” is an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap.

The realized cap here refers to an on-chain capitalization model that calculates the total value of the asset by assuming that the true value of any token in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain and not the current spot price.

This last transaction price of any coin is likely to be its latest cost basis, so the realized cap is essentially a sum of the cost basis of all tokens in circulation. Put another way, this model represents the capital the investors have put into the asset.

In contrast, the market cap, which calculates the total valuation of the total BTC supply at the current spot price, signifies the value the investors hold right now.

When the value of the MVRV Ratio is greater than 1, the investors hold more value than they put in, so they are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, the metric under this threshold suggests the market as a whole is carrying a loss.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio and its 180-day moving average (MA) over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio has seen a surge recently as the asset’s price has gone through its recovery run, implying investor profitability has improved.

With this increase, the indicator has now broken above its 180-day MA. Historically, a surge beyond this line has meant that the momentum of the metric has flipped to positive, which has proven to be a bullish predictor for the price.

In the chart, the analyst highlighted the previous rallies that followed a momentum flip in the MVRV Ratio. BTC appeared to have seen surges of at least 70% on each of the last four occasions.

Going by this precedent, the latest change in the MVRV Ratio momentum to green may again lead to a surge for Bitcoin. It only remains to be seen, though, whether any such rally would be of a comparable scale to the previous ones or not.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,500, up almost 3% over the last week.

Bitcoin Miner To Exchange Transactions Metric Has Just Seen A Spike

As pointed out by CryptoQuant author IT Tech in a new post on X, the Miner to Exchange Transactions indicator has been high recently. The “Miner to Exchange Transactions” keeps track of the total number of transfers that the miner-associated Bitcoin wallets are making to addresses connected with exchanges.

When the value of this metric is high, it means the miners are making a large amount of moves to these platforms. As one of the main reasons why these chain validators would deposit to exchanges is for selling-related purposes, this kind of trend can have a bearish effect on the BTC price.

On the other hand, the indicator being low implies miners aren’t making inflows to exchanges, potentially because they plan to hold onto their coins for a while. Naturally, this HODLing from this cohort can be a positive sign for the asset.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Transactions over the last few days:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Transactions has registered a large spike during the past day, suggesting that the miners have just made a large number of moves to these platforms.

It’s possible that this is an indication of a selloff from these chain validators, but whether this potential selling would actually affect the cryptocurrency depends on the exact scale of coins that’s involved in the transactions.

The analyst has also shared the data of an indicator that provides information related to it, called the Miner to Exchange Flow:

From the chart, it’s visible that this metric’s value has also shot up alongside the spike in the Miner to Exchange Transactions. At its height, the metric touched 225 BTC, which is equivalent to a little under $15.4 million at the current price.

This isn’t a small sum in itself, but when considering the scale of the total Bitcoin market cap, these exchange inflows hardly weigh to much. Thus, even if the miners plan to sell these coins, the market should be able to absorb the pressure just fine.

Miners are entities that have constant running costs in the form of electricity bills, so they tend to be regular sellers. Most of the time, their selling remains limited, which would make the recent value of the Miner to Exchange Flow in line with the norm.

The number of individual transfers to exchanges that the miners have made, however, is certainly unusual, so these indicators could be to keep an eye on in the coming days, in case more spikes pop up.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had surpassed the $69,000 level on Sunday, but the asset appears to have dropped back to $68,200 today.

Dogecoin Has Registered A 9% Jump During Last 24 Hours

While most of the cryptocurrency market has seen sideways price action during the past day, Dogecoin has shown to be different as its value has witnessed a notable increase.

The below chart shows the trend in DOGE’s price over the past month.

From the graph, it’s visible that the Dogecoin price has claimed the $0.134 mark with this rally and has surpassed the high from last month. The memecoin is now close to the July top, so if this run continues, the memecoin can potentially have a go at it as well.

In terms of the weekly returns, the latest jump has meant that DOGE is now up more than 24%, which has made it the best performer among the top 50 coins by market cap.

Dogecoin isn’t the only memecoin that has been rallying; the asset’s cousin Shiba Inu (SHIB) has also enjoyed bullish momentum during the past day, although its jump of 5% is less impressive than DOGE’s.

This latest focus on meme coins may not be the best sign for the cryptocurrency sector as a whole.

Market Topped Out The Last Time Memecoins Got The Attention

According to data from the analytics firm Santiment, the Social Dominance of the memecoins had spiked during the recent Bitcoin top above the $68,000 level. The “Social Dominance” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the percentage of the discussions related to the top 100 coins on social media that a given coin or group of assets is occupying right now.

Here is a chart that shows how the Social Dominance of the top 6 layer 1 assets has compared with that of the top 6 meme coins recently:

As displayed in the above graph, the Social Dominance of the memecoins had shot up earlier as Bitcoin and others had rallied, suggesting that investors had started paying attention to these speculative assets.

This interest in the meme coins, though, ended up coinciding with the market top. “Typically, markets correct when focus shifts away from layer 1’s and toward more speculative assets due to greed,” explains the analytics firm.

With Dogecoin and Shiba Inu pulling away from the pack during the past day, it seems the investor greed is still high, which can potentially lead to more bearish action for Bitcoin and other top assets.

From the chart, it’s visible that the market has tended to reach bottoms when attention has shifted back to the layer 1 networks, so it’s possible that this may have to happen again if the sector-wide run has to continue.

Very Few Bitcoin Addresses Are Still Underwater

In a new post on X, the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has shared an update on how the Bitcoin holder’s profitability is currently looking. The analytics firm has made use of on-chain data to determine this.

IntoTheBlock has gone through the transaction history of each address on the network to check the average price at which it acquired its coins. Wallets with a cost basis below the current price are assumed to carry some net unrealized profit.

Similarly, addresses of the opposite type are considered to be loss holders. The analytics firm terms the former investors “in the money,” while the latter are “out of the money.”

Naturally, the wallets with their average acquisition price equal to the latest spot price of the cryptocurrency would be just breaking even on their investment. They would be said to be “at the money.”

Now, here is how the address distribution on the Bitcoin network is like right now across these three categories:

As is visible above, around 95% of the existing Bitcoin holders currently have a net profit. About 3% of the remaining are at their break-even level, while the rest 2% are underwater.

Thus, the market distribution is currently overwhelmingly skewed towards profit holders. The reason behind this is the recent price rally the asset has gone through.

“With 95% of Bitcoin addresses now in profit, market sentiment is booming,” notes IntoTheBlock. “Historically, such levels have signaled strong bullish momentum but can also indicate a potential overextension.”

Generally, investors in profit are more likely to sell their coins at any point, so a large amount of them being in the green can raise the chances of a mass selloff occurring with the motive of profit-taking. This is why a high profitability ratio can suggest potential overheated conditions.

A huge amount of addresses are in the money right now, so it’s possible that another profit-taking event could happen. It remains to be seen whether demand would be enough to absorb the selling or if a top would take place for Bitcoin.

On a more bullish note, the Bitcoin inflows to “accumulation addresses” have spiked recently, as CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn has pointed out in an X post.

The accumulation addresses refer to the wallets that have no history of selling on the network. These perennial HODLers have just added a massive 56,700 BTC to their wallets, which could suggest they may be starting another phase of accumulation.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $67,400, up more than 11% over the past week.

Bitcoin Whale Transaction Count Now Highest In Over 10 Weeks

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, the Bitcoin whales have shown an increase in activity recently. The indicator of relevance here is the “Whale Transaction Count,” which keeps track of the total amount of transfers taking place on the BTC blockchain that are carrying a value of at least $100,000.

When the value of this metric is high, it means the whales are making a large number of moves on the network right now. Such a trend implies these humongous holders have an active interest in trading the coin.

On the other hand, the indicator being low suggests the whales may not currently be paying much attention to the cryptocurrency as they aren’t making too many transactions.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Whale Transaction Count over the last few months:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Whale Transaction Count has seen a notable spike recently, suggesting that the whales have made a large amount of transfers. More particularly, these humongous entities made a total of 11,697 transfers in the span of 24 hours at the peak of this spike.

Generally, it’s hard to say anything about what sort of transfer activity it is exactly that the whales are participating in based off the Whale Transaction Count alone, since both selling and buying transactions look the same from the perspective of the indicator. The accompanying price action, though, can provide some hints.

The latest peak in the metric is the highest that the indicator has gotten since early August. Back then, the spike had coincided with a crash in the asset’s price, implying that a lot of the whales’ moves may have had been for selling.

The current increase in the Whale Transaction Count has come as Bitcoin has been rallying, so it’s possible that the whales may be participating in profit-taking again. Since the spike occurred, BTC has slid down under $67,000, which may add evidence for this.

In the same chart, Santiment has also attached the data for another BTC metric: the Social Dominance. This indicator basically tells us about the share of social media discussions that Bitcoin is occupying as compared to the total for the top 100 assets in the sector.

From the graph, it’s apparent that the Social Dominance has spiked to 25.5% for the cryptocurrency, which is the highest value since late July. Thus, Bitcoin’s mindshare is currently high when compared to that of the altcoins.

This is usually a sign of fear of missing out (FOMO) among traders. Historically, excessive hype has been a poor sign for BTC, with tops often following it.

“Both of these signals are signs that the rally may be on hold due to key stakeholder profit taking and high crowd FOMO,” notes the analytics firm.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $66,900, up more than 9% over the last week.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index Is Currently Showing Red Values

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the BTC Coinbase Premium Index is inside the negative zone right now. The “Coinbase Premium Index” is an indicator that measures the difference between the Bitcoin prices listed on the cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair).

When the value of this metric is positive, it means the BTC price listed on Coinbase is currently higher than that on Binance. Such a trend suggests the former is observing a higher buying pressure (or a lower selling pressure) than the latter.

On the other hand, the negative indicator implies that Coinbase users are participating in a higher degree of selling than Binance ones, as the coin is trading at a lower rate there.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index over the last few months:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has shown an interesting relationship with price until recently. It would appear that whenever the metric would assume positive values, the asset would rally, and whenever it would dip into the negative territory, the price would also plunge.

This pattern extends beyond the chart window, as 2024 in its entirety has generally shown the two moving with notable correlation. The trend naturally suggests that Coinbase users have been potential market drivers, as the changes in their behavior have been inducing price action.

Coinbase is the preferred platform of investors based in the US, especially large institutional entities, while Binance is the hub of global investors. As such, the index’s value tells us about how the behavior of American whales differs from the rest of the world.

While the US-based institutional investors have been key for much of 2024, the pattern appears to have diverged recently. The chart shows that as the latest rally in the Bitcoin price has occurred, the indicator’s value has been red.

This isn’t the only pattern that has been broken, as the index also tends to turn green whenever the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witness inflows. The spot ETFs have seen significant net inflows recently, but the metric’s value has not flipped.

“This raises the question of whether investors on Binance, whether retailers, institutions, or whales, are surpassing the buying pressure on Coinbase Pro,” notes the quant.

It remains to be seen if the index and the price will continue to show a divergence shortly, implying a possible shift in market structure away from being Coinbase-dominated, or if it’s just a temporary deviation.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has continued its recent bullish push during the past day, as its price has now reached $68,000.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Currently Inside The Greed Region

The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. This index makes use of the data of the following five factors in order to determine the sentiment: trading volume, volatility, social media sentiment, market cap dominance, and Google Trends. Once found, it represents the market mentality as a score between 0 and 100.

When the metric has a value greater than 53, it means the traders as a whole share a sentiment of greed right now. On the other hand, it being under the 47 mark implies the dominance of fear in the market. The territory in-between these two corresponds to a net neutral mentality.

Besides these three main sentiment zones, there are also two special regions called the extreme fear and the extreme greed. The former of these occurs at 25 and under, while the latter at 75 and above.

Now, here is what the latest value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has been like:

As is visible above, the indicator has a value of 73, which suggests that the investors are currently showing a significant amount of greed. This is a notable change from how the mood in the market was last week, as the index had declined into the fear zone then.

The below chart shows how the value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has changed over the past year:

From the graph, it’s visible that this latest uplift in the sentiment, which has come as a result of the asset’s rally to $68,000, has taken the index to the highest value since the end of July. Back then, the high sentiment values had led to a top for the cryptocurrency. This type of pattern is something that has actually been witnessed throughout history.

It turns out that Bitcoin has a tendency to move in the direction opposite to what the crowd is expecting and the probability of such a contrary move increases the more the traders lean towards one side.

In the extreme regions, this likelihood is the strongest, so tops and bottoms have often formed when the investors have shared these sentiments. The current value of the index is just outside the extreme greed zone, so a top could become likely for the asset should the investor mentality continue to improve.

The sentiment may also not even have to improve further for such a scenario to follow out, as the top back in July had occurred when the index had a value of 74, only one unit greater than the current one.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $68,000, up more than 9% over the last week.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Has Proven To Be Reliable Recently

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Community Manager Maartunn has discussed about an indicator that’s suited for doing day-to-day BTC trading. The metric in question is the Realized Price of the short-term holders.

The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that, in short, keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor or address on the Bitcoin network. When the spot price of the coin is greater than this metric, the holders as a whole are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, it being under the indicator suggests the dominance of loss in the market.

In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a particular segment of the sector is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs are made up of the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

This cohort corresponds to one of the two main divisions of the Bitcoin market done on the basis of holding time, with the other group being known as the long-term holders (LTHs).

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH Realized Price over the past month:

In the above graph, Maartunn has highlighted all the instances where the Bitcoin price made a retest of the STH Realized Price during this window. It would appear that the line has acted as both support and resistance for the asset.

The cryptocurrency finding a break above the line has turned it into support, while it falling under has led to the level changing into resistance. This is actually a pattern that the STH Realized Price has displayed throughout history, not just the past month.

As for why the indicator shows such interactions with the coin’s price, the answer may lie in investor psychology. The STHs tend to include the most fickle-minded investors in the market and they are particularly sensitive to retests of their cost basis.

When Bitcoin retests their Realized Price from above, they may decide to buy more of the asset, as they could believe that the same level would prove to be profitable again in the future. This accumulation provides support to the BTC price.

Similarly, the STHs can sell as a reaction to a retest from below, as they may fear that they would go into losses once more in the near term, so exiting at the break-even would at least give them their money back.

While the Bitcoin STH Realized Price does tend to carry some reliability, it can also show some deviations. As the analyst has marked in the chart, one such outlier instance occurred just earlier in the month.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $65,700, up more than 5% over the last seven days.

Ethereum Open Interest Has Now Risen To $9.7 Billion

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Ethereum Open Interest has seen a strong rise recently. The “Open Interest” is an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of ETH-related positions currently open on all derivatives platforms.

When the value of this metric goes up, it means the investors are opening up new positions on the market right now. As new positions generally come with leverage attached to them, the overall leverage in the market rises when the Open Interest does. So, the asset’s price can become more likely to show volatility.

On the other hand, the indicator registering a decline implies the holders are either closing up positions of their own volition or getting liquidated by their platforms. Either way, the reduced leverage can lead to more stability for the cryptocurrency.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Ethereum Open Interest over the past month:

As the above graph shows, the Ethereum Open Interest has seen a spike recently as the cryptocurrency’s price has shown its recovery run. This isn’t particularly unusual, as rallies tend to attract a lot of attention and, with such interest, naturally follow a ton of speculation.

However, the scale of the increase could be something to watch out for. From the chart, it’s apparent that this latest Open Interest increase has outweighed the September spike.

A zoomed-out version of the chart shows that the last time the metric saw a larger 24-hour rise was back in May.

As mentioned earlier, an Open Interest increase can lead to more volatility in the price. This is because a mass liquidation event, popularly known as a squeeze, can become more likely to occur if the market is more leveraged.

In theory, this volatility can take Ethereum in either direction. However, the quant has pointed out that the funding rates are currently high, which suggests the sector is leaning towards being long-heavy. Thus, most of the new positions that have popped up on exchanges are likely long.

Historically, conditions like these have created a ripe environment for a long squeeze. It remains to be seen how the coin develops in the coming future and whether a sharp correction in its price will occur alongside large long liquidations.

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at around $2,600, up more than 8% over the past week.

Ethereum Ascending Channel Could Reveal Its Next Destination

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed a pattern that the 1-week price of Ethereum has potentially been following during the last couple of years.

The pattern in question is the “Ascending Channel” from technical analysis (TA), which is a type of Parallel Channel. In a Parallel Channel, the asset consolidates between two parallel trendlines, with the upper level connecting successive tops and the lower bottoms.

These two levels are slopped upwards in the case of an Ascending Channel, as already hinted at by its name. Thus, an Ascending Channel only forms when the asset sets higher highs and lows.

The lower level of the pattern can support the price, while the upper one may act as resistance. If either of these levels break, the asset could see a continuation of trend in that direction; a surge above the top line can be a bullish sign, while a drop under the bottom line can foreshadow a bearish outcome.

There is also another type of Parallel Channel, called the Descending Channel, which works much in the same way as the Ascending Channel, except for the fact that it points downwards.

Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the Ascending Channel that the 1-week Ethereum price could be trading inside right now:

As displayed in the above graph, the 1-week Ethereum price has recently been retesting the bottom level of this potential Ascending Channel pattern. The analyst has highlighted what happened the last few times that the coin made a retest of this line.

“Every bounce off this channel’s lower boundary has historically led to an average 130% price increase for Ethereum,” notes Martinez. Thus, if the Ascending Channel continues to hold for the cryptocurrency, it could benefit from another surge shortly

“If this pattern holds, a similar move could push ETH to $6,000—provided the $2,300 support level stays intact,” says the analyst. This support level naturally corresponds to the channel’s bottom line, a drop beyond which could potentially invalidate the formation.

Given this pattern forming in its weekly chart, It remains to be seen how the Ethereum price will develop in the coming months.

ETH Price

Ethereum has enjoyed a sharp 7% rally during the past 24 hours, which has taken its price above the $2,600 mark.