{"id":603807,"date":"2024-04-18T07:45:14","date_gmt":"2024-04-18T07:45:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/?p=603807"},"modified":"2024-06-11T07:24:42","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T07:24:42","slug":"no-fed-rate-cuts-no-worries-for-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/news\/no-fed-rate-cuts-no-worries-for-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"No Fed Rate Cuts? No Worries For Bitcoin, Says Research Firm"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the US economy grapples with rising inflation expectations and scaled-back forecasts for Federal Reserve rate cuts, the Bitcoin market remains buoyant, according to a detailed analysis by Reflexivity Research. With the US CPI headline inflation projected to accelerate<\/a> to 4.8% by the November 2024 elections, according to Bank of America, conditions are seemingly unfavorable for a loosening of monetary policy. Despite this, the cryptocurrency sector, particularly Bitcoin, appears insulated and optimistic.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Unfazed By Delayed Rate Cuts?<\/h2>\n

The bond market now anticipates only three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, a significant reduction from the earlier forecast of six. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the majority of market participants do not expect a rate cut to occur before the mid-September FOMC meeting. This adjustment reflects a recalibration of expectations regarding the Fed\u2019s capacity to manage persistent inflation pressures.<\/p>\n

Amidst these macroeconomic shifts, Ritik Goyal, in a guest post<\/a> for Reflexivity Research, presents a compelling analysis in his report titled “The Fed is Unable to Cause a Recession. Risk Assets are Yet to Realize This.”<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Pre-Halving Jitters: Bitcoin Price Briefly Slips Below $60,000<\/a><\/div>\n

The report argues that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes have had unintended stimulative effects on the economy. Goyal elucidates three specific mechanisms through which this phenomenon operates:<\/p>\n

1. Increased Government Interest Payments<\/b>: “Rate hikes raised interest payments by the government to the private sector,” Goyal notes. As the Fed raises rates, it increases the interest burden on the government, which has borrowed extensively during the post-COVID period.<\/a> With the federal debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120%, the doubled interest payments now effectively act as a stimulus, channeling approximately $1 trillion annually to the private sector<\/p>\n

2. Direct Subsidy to Banking System<\/b>: The Fed’s policy adjustments have also led to a redistribution of wealth within the financial system. “Rate hikes raised the Fed\u2019s direct subsidy to the banking system,” states Goyal. This has occurred as the yield curve inversion resulted in the Fed incurring losses on its balance sheet, losses that directly benefit the banking sector, translating to an estimated $150 billion annual subsidy.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Displays Bullish Adam And Eve Double Bottom: What It Means<\/a><\/div>\n

3. Induced Housing Construction Boom<\/b>: The rate hikes have paradoxically stimulated the housing market. “Rate hikes induced a housing construction boom,” according to Goyal. As higher rates discourage existing homeowners from selling, the only viable option to meet housing demand is new construction, a sector with one of the highest GDP multipliers.<\/p>\n

Goyal\u2019s insights underline a critical misalignment in the Fed\u2019s current approach<\/a> against the backdrop of substantial fiscal interventions since the pandemic. “The traditional monetary policy framework is breaking down under the weight of fiscal dominance,” Goyal concludes, suggesting an environment that could favor non-traditional assets like Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

Echoing Goyal’s findings, crypto expert Will Clemente highlighted<\/a> the broader implications for cryptocurrencies on X (formerly Twitter), stating, “With debt\/GDP as high as it is, we\u2019re in a backwards world where high rates mean interest payments on debt are stimmy checks for people that buy assets\u2014~$1T will be paid out in 2024. Big picture is very constructive for the internet coins.”<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $61,173.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC price, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the US economy grapples with rising inflation expectations and scaled-back forecasts for Federal Reserve rate cuts, the Bitcoin market remains buoyant, according to a detailed analysis by Reflexivity Research. With the US CPI headline inflation projected to accelerate to 4.8% by the November 2024 elections, according to Bank of America, conditions are seemingly unfavorable for a loosening of monetary policy. Despite this, the cryptocurrency sector, particularly Bitcoin, appears insulated and optimistic. Bitcoin Unfazed By Delayed Rate Cuts? The bond market now anticipates only three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, a significant reduction from the earlier forecast of six. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the majority of market participants do not expect a rate cut to occur before the mid-September FOMC meeting. This adjustment reflects a recalibration of expectations regarding the Fed\u2019s capacity to manage persistent inflation pressures. Amidst these macroeconomic shifts, Ritik Goyal, in a guest post for Reflexivity Research, presents a compelling analysis in his report titled “The Fed is Unable to Cause a Recession. Risk Assets are Yet to Realize This.” Related Reading: Pre-Halving Jitters: Bitcoin Price Briefly Slips Below $60,000 The report argues that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes have had unintended stimulative effects on the economy. Goyal elucidates three specific mechanisms through which this phenomenon operates: 1. Increased Government Interest Payments: “Rate hikes raised interest payments by the government to the private sector,” Goyal notes. As the Fed raises rates, it increases the interest burden on the government, which has borrowed extensively during the post-COVID period. With the federal debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120%, the doubled interest payments now effectively act as a stimulus, channeling approximately $1 trillion annually to the private sector 2. Direct Subsidy to Banking System: The Fed’s policy adjustments have also led to a redistribution of wealth within the financial system. “Rate hikes raised the Fed\u2019s direct subsidy to the banking system,” states Goyal. This has occurred as the yield curve inversion resulted in the Fed incurring losses on its balance sheet, losses that directly benefit the banking sector, translating to an estimated $150 billion annual subsidy. Related Reading: Bitcoin Displays Bullish Adam And Eve Double Bottom: What It Means 3. Induced Housing Construction Boom: The rate hikes have paradoxically stimulated the housing market. “Rate hikes induced a housing construction boom,” according to Goyal. As higher rates discourage existing homeowners from selling, the only viable option to meet housing demand is new construction, a sector with one of the highest GDP multipliers. Goyal\u2019s insights underline a critical misalignment in the Fed\u2019s current approach against the backdrop of substantial fiscal interventions since the pandemic. “The traditional monetary policy framework is breaking down under the weight of fiscal dominance,” Goyal concludes, suggesting an environment that could favor non-traditional assets like Bitcoin. Echoing Goyal’s findings, crypto expert Will Clemente highlighted the broader implications for cryptocurrencies on X (formerly Twitter), stating, “With debt\/GDP as high as it is, we\u2019re in a backwards world where high rates mean interest payments on debt are stimmy checks for people that buy assets\u2014~$1T will be paid out in 2024. Big picture is very constructive for the internet coins.” At press time, BTC traded at $61,173. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":603816,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,656,679,1119,1122,1144,2007,92109,6573],"class_list":["post-603807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-price","tag-btcusd","tag-fed","tag-fed-rate-cuts","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNo Fed Rate Cuts? 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Through his extensive work with ktsl888.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/realJakeSimmons"],"url":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/author\/marcusmisiak\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"No Fed Rate Cuts? 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