{"id":553281,"date":"2023-09-28T12:00:05","date_gmt":"2023-09-28T12:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/?p=553281"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:29:41","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:29:41","slug":"bonds-out-bitcoin-in-bloomberg-analyst-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/news\/bonds-out-bitcoin-in-bloomberg-analyst-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"Bonds Out, Bitcoin In? Bloomberg Analyst Predicts Major Portfolio Shifts"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a comprehensive evaluation of global market dynamics, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Jamie Coutts has opined on the shifting sands of financial asset volatility. With bonds potentially falling out of favor and Bitcoin cementing its place as a debasement hedge, traditional portfolio models may be on the verge of a renaissance.<\/p>\n

Major Portfolio Shift Towards Bitcoin?<\/h2>\n

Coutts tweeted<\/a>, “It looks like we are about to see a substantial uptick in volatility across all markets, given where yields, USD, & global M2 are heading. Despite what lies ahead, there has been a big shift in the volatility profiles of global assets vs. Bitcoin over the past years.”<\/p>\n

A comparative analysis by Coutts highlighted that since 2020, the volatility profiles of Bitcoin and Gold have declined, while most other assets have seen an increase in volatility.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Keep Pushing But Faces Rejection, 100 SMA Is The Key<\/a><\/div>\n

His breakdown indicates that the traditional 60\/40 portfolio volatility is up by 90%, NASDAQ’s volatility has surged by 53%, and global equity volatility rose by 33%; meanwhile, only Bitcoin’s volatility decreased by 52% as well as Gold’s volatility, which went down by 6%<\/p>\n

\"Normalized
Normalized volatility | Source: X @Jamie1Coutts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Coutts further elaborated that following the “hyper-volatile” phase of Bitcoin during 2011-14, the cryptocurrency’s volatility has been on a downward trajectory. From a peak above 120 in early 2018, this metric currently stands at 26.39.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin volatility | Source: X @Jamie1Coutts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

However, Coutts maintains skepticism over Bitcoin’s short-term prospects given the deteriorating macro environment: “Given that BTC volatility is near the bottom of the range plus a deteriorating macro environment: US dollar (DXY) is up, 10Y Treasury Yield is up, Global M2 money supply is up. It’s difficult to see how BTC (& all risk assets) can hold up with this setup.”<\/p>\n

BTC Vs. Global Asset Classes<\/h2>\n

On the bright side, from an asset allocation perspective, Coutts considers the real question to be whether “Bitcoin can add value as a risk diversifier & improve risk-adjusted returns.” Comparing the risk-adjusted returns using the Sortino ratio during the last bear market, Bitcoin’s performance is not the best.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Trend At Stake: How September\u2019s Close Could Change Everything<\/a><\/div>\n

In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin’s Sortino ratio is -1.78, positioning BTC above global equities, the NASDAQ 100, and the traditional 60:40 portfolio. However, it trails the S&P 500 (-1.46), European Equities (-1.01), Gold (+0.1), Silver (+0.28), and commodities (+1.25).<\/p>\n

\"Assets
Assets Sortino ratios | Source: X @Jamie1Coutts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Elaborating on the cyclical behavior of Bitcoin, Coutts added, “The problem with BTC is the relatively short history makes inferences difficult and 1 year periods are certainly not significant. The best we can go on is multiple cycles. It’s clear that holding over the full cycle has been a winning strategy.”<\/p>\n

Evaluating the Sortino ratio over the past three Bitcoin cycles (2013-2022), Coutts found Bitcoin to lead with a score of 2.46, outperforming the NASDAQ 100 (+1.37), S&P 500 (+1.25), and global equities (+1.05).<\/p>\n

BTC: Top Bet Against Money Printing<\/h2>\n

In this scenario, Debasement concerns further enhance Bitcoin’s proposition. Coutts emphasized this saying, “And if allocators want to outpace monetary debasement, over most timeframes, bonds are not the place to be.” He identified Bitcoin as the foremost choice for portfolio reallocation against monetary debasement.<\/p>\n

Citing the vast difference between asset returns concerning money supply growth (M2) over the past 10 years, he highlighted Bitcoin’s dominance with a staggering ratio of +8,598, followed by NASDAQ (+109), S&P 500 (+25) and global equities (-7.5).<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin risk-adjusted returns over multiple cycles | Source: X @Jamie1Coutts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In a concluding statement, Coutts postulated, “In the years ahead it’s conceivable that allocators begin to shift towards better debasement hedges. BTC is an obvious choice.” Moreover, he suggests that Bitcoin could supplant bonds by securing at least 1% of the traditional 60\/40 portfolio.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $26,433.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC hovers below the trend line, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a comprehensive evaluation of global market dynamics, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Jamie Coutts has opined on the shifting sands of financial asset volatility. With bonds potentially falling out of favor and Bitcoin cementing its place as a debasement hedge, traditional portfolio models may be on the verge of a renaissance. Major Portfolio Shift Towards Bitcoin? Coutts tweeted, “It looks like we are about to see a substantial uptick in volatility across all markets, given where yields, USD, & global M2 are heading. Despite what lies ahead, there has been a big shift in the volatility profiles of global assets vs. Bitcoin over the past years.” A comparative analysis by Coutts highlighted that since 2020, the volatility profiles of Bitcoin and Gold have declined, while most other assets have seen an increase in volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Keep Pushing But Faces Rejection, 100 SMA Is The Key His breakdown indicates that the traditional 60\/40 portfolio volatility is up by 90%, NASDAQ’s volatility has surged by 53%, and global equity volatility rose by 33%; meanwhile, only Bitcoin’s volatility decreased by 52% as well as Gold’s volatility, which went down by 6% Coutts further elaborated that following the “hyper-volatile” phase of Bitcoin during 2011-14, the cryptocurrency’s volatility has been on a downward trajectory. From a peak above 120 in early 2018, this metric currently stands at 26.39. However, Coutts maintains skepticism over Bitcoin’s short-term prospects given the deteriorating macro environment: “Given that BTC volatility is near the bottom of the range plus a deteriorating macro environment: US dollar (DXY) is up, 10Y Treasury Yield is up, Global M2 money supply is up. It’s difficult to see how BTC (& all risk assets) can hold up with this setup.” BTC Vs. Global Asset Classes On the bright side, from an asset allocation perspective, Coutts considers the real question to be whether “Bitcoin can add value as a risk diversifier & improve risk-adjusted returns.” Comparing the risk-adjusted returns using the Sortino ratio during the last bear market, Bitcoin’s performance is not the best. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Trend At Stake: How September\u2019s Close Could Change Everything In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin’s Sortino ratio is -1.78, positioning BTC above global equities, the NASDAQ 100, and the traditional 60:40 portfolio. However, it trails the S&P 500 (-1.46), European Equities (-1.01), Gold (+0.1), Silver (+0.28), and commodities (+1.25). Elaborating on the cyclical behavior of Bitcoin, Coutts added, “The problem with BTC is the relatively short history makes inferences difficult and 1 year periods are certainly not significant. The best we can go on is multiple cycles. It’s clear that holding over the full cycle has been a winning strategy.” Evaluating the Sortino ratio over the past three Bitcoin cycles (2013-2022), Coutts found Bitcoin to lead with a score of 2.46, outperforming the NASDAQ 100 (+1.37), S&P 500 (+1.25), and global equities (+1.05). BTC: Top Bet Against Money Printing In this scenario, Debasement concerns further enhance Bitcoin’s proposition. Coutts emphasized this saying, “And if allocators want to outpace monetary debasement, over most timeframes, bonds are not the place to be.” He identified Bitcoin as the foremost choice for portfolio reallocation against monetary debasement. Citing the vast difference between asset returns concerning money supply growth (M2) over the past 10 years, he highlighted Bitcoin’s dominance with a staggering ratio of +8,598, followed by NASDAQ (+109), S&P 500 (+25) and global equities (-7.5). In a concluding statement, Coutts postulated, “In the years ahead it’s conceivable that allocators begin to shift towards better debasement hedges. BTC is an obvious choice.” Moreover, he suggests that Bitcoin could supplant bonds by securing at least 1% of the traditional 60\/40 portfolio. At press time, BTC traded at $26,433. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":553282,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1039,8768,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-553281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bloomberg","tag-bonds","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBonds Out, Bitcoin In? 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Through his extensive work with ktsl888.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. 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Through his extensive work with ktsl888.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/realJakeSimmons"],"url":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/author\/marcusmisiak\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bonds Out, Bitcoin In? 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