{"id":542088,"date":"2023-07-11T08:50:31","date_gmt":"2023-07-11T08:50:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/?p=542088"},"modified":"2024-06-11T11:19:40","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T11:19:40","slug":"bitcoin-mid-cycle-point-historical-pattern-repeating","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/news\/bitcoin-mid-cycle-point-historical-pattern-repeating\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin At Mid-Cycle Point: Historical Pattern Repeating Itself?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has reached a critical juncture in its current market cycle, according to a recent analysis<\/a> conducted by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. The data reveals striking similarities to historical patterns, raising questions about the potential emergence of a familiar phenomenon: the re-accumulation period.<\/p>\n

A Resilient Market: Bitcoin Holds Firm At Mid-Cycle<\/h2>\n

The Glassnode analysis reveals that Bitcoin is consolidating around the $30,000 mark, which acts as a significant mid-point within the 2021-2023 cycle. The historical significance of this level is not to be overlooked, as it has been tested repeatedly in previous cycles.<\/p>\n

Remarkably, the mid-cycle phenomenon is not exclusive to the current cycle; similar mid-cycle points were observed in both 2013-2016 and 2018-2019, displaying analogous supply dynamics.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin mid-cycle point | Source: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As Bitcoin currently hovers around the $30,000 mid-point, approximately 75% of the total supply is currently held in a profitable state, while the remaining 25% remains in a loss position. This balance of supply held in profit versus loss is reminiscent of equilibrium points witnessed during previous cycles, indicating a potential re-accumulation period.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Hash Rate Retakes All-Time High As Miners Continue To Expand Capacity<\/a><\/div>\n

As Glassnode explains, “This 75:25 balance of supply held in profit:loss is the equilibrium point for Bitcoin. 50% of all trading days have seen a higher Profit-to-Loss balance, and 50% a lower one.” Such equilibrium points have historically required time for the market to digest and re-consolidate around, often accompanied by a period of sideways trading and volatility. This has become known as the “re-accumulation period.”<\/p>\n

At the moment, The supply held “in-loss” has declined to just 4.79 million BTC, reaching similar levels seen in July 2021 ($30k), July 2020 ($9.2k), April 2016 ($6.5k), and March 2016 ($425).<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin supply in profit and loss | Source: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Robust Recovery And Historical Comparisons<\/h2>\n

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s price performance in 2023 has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with a maximum drawdown of only -18% thus far, a shallow correction compared to previous cycles. This suggests a substantial underlying demand for the asset and indicates a potential strong degree of investor support.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Google Search Interest Stands At Critical Level, What This Forecast For BTC<\/a><\/div>\n

Glassnode’s analysis further highlights the similarities between the current recovery rally and those observed in prior cycles. Historically, recovery rallies following a similar magnitude move off the cycle’s bottom often marked the genesis of a new cyclical uptrend.<\/p>\n

While exceptions exist, the parallels between the current recovery and those of the past offer an intriguing possibility for Bitcoin’s future trajectory. The report notes, “With the exception of 2019, all prior cycles which experienced a similar magnitude move off the bottom were, in fact, the genesis point of a new cyclical uptrend.”<\/p>\n

Remarkably, previous re-accumulation periods were characterized by a lack of macro market direction and tending to trade sideways. \u201cWith the market back at this equilibrium point, it remains to be seen if a similarly lengthy and choppy process is needed to overcome it,\u201d concludes Glassnode.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss | Source: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The Takeaway: Will History Repeat For BTC?<\/h2>\n

Glassnode’s analysis unveils a fascinating narrative within Bitcoin’s ongoing market cycle. The emergence of the mid-cycle point and the familiar supply dynamics indicate that historical patterns are repeating themselves. While no crystal ball can predict the future with certainty, these insights offer intriguing possibilities for Bitcoin’s trajectory.<\/p>\n

At press time, the BTC price was at $30,626 and remained in the trading range of the last two weeks.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC attacks the mid-range once again, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has reached a critical juncture in its current market cycle, according to a recent analysis conducted by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. The data reveals striking similarities to historical patterns, raising questions about the potential emergence of a familiar phenomenon: the re-accumulation period. A Resilient Market: Bitcoin Holds Firm At Mid-Cycle The Glassnode analysis reveals that Bitcoin is consolidating around the $30,000 mark, which acts as a significant mid-point within the 2021-2023 cycle. The historical significance of this level is not to be overlooked, as it has been tested repeatedly in previous cycles. Remarkably, the mid-cycle phenomenon is not exclusive to the current cycle; similar mid-cycle points were observed in both 2013-2016 and 2018-2019, displaying analogous supply dynamics. As Bitcoin currently hovers around the $30,000 mid-point, approximately 75% of the total supply is currently held in a profitable state, while the remaining 25% remains in a loss position. This balance of supply held in profit versus loss is reminiscent of equilibrium points witnessed during previous cycles, indicating a potential re-accumulation period. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hash Rate Retakes All-Time High As Miners Continue To Expand Capacity As Glassnode explains, “This 75:25 balance of supply held in profit:loss is the equilibrium point for Bitcoin. 50% of all trading days have seen a higher Profit-to-Loss balance, and 50% a lower one.” Such equilibrium points have historically required time for the market to digest and re-consolidate around, often accompanied by a period of sideways trading and volatility. This has become known as the “re-accumulation period.” At the moment, The supply held “in-loss” has declined to just 4.79 million BTC, reaching similar levels seen in July 2021 ($30k), July 2020 ($9.2k), April 2016 ($6.5k), and March 2016 ($425). Robust Recovery And Historical Comparisons According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s price performance in 2023 has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with a maximum drawdown of only -18% thus far, a shallow correction compared to previous cycles. This suggests a substantial underlying demand for the asset and indicates a potential strong degree of investor support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Google Search Interest Stands At Critical Level, What This Forecast For BTC Glassnode’s analysis further highlights the similarities between the current recovery rally and those observed in prior cycles. Historically, recovery rallies following a similar magnitude move off the cycle’s bottom often marked the genesis of a new cyclical uptrend. While exceptions exist, the parallels between the current recovery and those of the past offer an intriguing possibility for Bitcoin’s future trajectory. The report notes, “With the exception of 2019, all prior cycles which experienced a similar magnitude move off the bottom were, in fact, the genesis point of a new cyclical uptrend.” Remarkably, previous re-accumulation periods were characterized by a lack of macro market direction and tending to trade sideways. \u201cWith the market back at this equilibrium point, it remains to be seen if a similarly lengthy and choppy process is needed to overcome it,\u201d concludes Glassnode. The Takeaway: Will History Repeat For BTC? Glassnode’s analysis unveils a fascinating narrative within Bitcoin’s ongoing market cycle. The emergence of the mid-cycle point and the familiar supply dynamics indicate that historical patterns are repeating themselves. While no crystal ball can predict the future with certainty, these insights offer intriguing possibilities for Bitcoin’s trajectory. At press time, the BTC price was at $30,626 and remained in the trading range of the last two weeks. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":542090,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119,1144,61309,8080],"class_list":["post-542088","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-glassnode","tag-halving"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin At Mid-Cycle Point: Historical Pattern Repeating Itself?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin has reached a critical juncture in its current market cycle, according to a recent analysis conducted by Glassnode.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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Through his extensive work with ktsl888.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/realJakeSimmons"],"url":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/author\/marcusmisiak\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bitcoin At Mid-Cycle Point: Historical Pattern Repeating Itself?","url":"http:\/\/ktsl888.com\/news\/bitcoin-mid-cycle-point-historical-pattern-repeating\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/ktsl888.com\/news\/bitcoin-mid-cycle-point-historical-pattern-repeating\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/iStock-1198722186.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/iStock-1198722186.jpg?fit=1254%2C836"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Jake Simmons"}],"creator":["Jake Simmons"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","btc","btcusd","glassnode","halving"],"dateCreated":"2023-07-11T08:50:31Z","datePublished":"2023-07-11T08:50:31Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T11:19:40Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Bitcoin At Mid-Cycle Point: Historical Pattern Repeating Itself?\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/ktsl888.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-mid-cycle-point-historical-pattern-repeating\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/ktsl888.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-mid-cycle-point-historical-pattern-repeating\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ktsl888.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/07\\\/iStock-1198722186.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ktsl888.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/07\\\/iStock-1198722186.jpg?fit=1254%2C836\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Jake Simmons\"}],\"creator\":[\"Jake Simmons\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ktsl888.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\",\"glassnode\",\"halving\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-07-11T08:50:31Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-11T08:50:31Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T11:19:40Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/ktsl888.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/iStock-1198722186.jpg?fit=1254%2C836","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542088"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/571"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=542088"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542088\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/542090"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=542088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=542088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=542088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}