{"id":514945,"date":"2023-01-05T11:00:27","date_gmt":"2023-01-05T16:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/?p=514945"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:53:19","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:53:19","slug":"quant-explains-bitcoin-mvrv-macd-trends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/news\/quant-explains-bitcoin-mvrv-macd-trends\/","title":{"rendered":"Quant Explains How Bitcoin MVRV MACD Can Signal Price Trends"},"content":{"rendered":"

A quant has broken down how the Bitcoin MVRV MACD oscillator could be used to check for signals in the price.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin MVRV MACD Oscillator As Price indicator<\/h2>\n

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post<\/a>, this metric can help detect both the lows and the highs in the price, as well as the greater trends. The “Bitcoin MVRV<\/a>” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap and the realized cap.<\/p>\n

Here, the “realized cap<\/a>” is a capitalization model for BTC that values each coin in circulation at the price at which it was last moved, rather than taking the same current BTC price as the value of all the coins, as the normal market cap does.<\/p>\n

Since the realized cap is sort of a “true” value model for the coin, its comparison with the market cap (in the MVRV) can tell us whether the coin is undervalued or overvalued at the moment. When the MVRV is greater than 1, it means BTC is overpriced right now, while having values below the threshold suggests it’s underpriced.<\/p>\n

Now, to use MVRV as a trading tool, the quant has taken the MACD oscillator<\/a> of the indicator. A MACD oscillator is just the difference between the short-term and long-term exponential moving averages (EMA) of the metric in question. Here, these EMAs are the 50-day and the 100-day versions.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Ethereum Surges 4% As Whales Show Elevated Activity<\/a><\/div>\n

The below chart shows how the Bitcoin MVRV MACD can be used for finding tops and bottoms in the price:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The metric seems to have approached a value of 0 recently | Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/pre>\n
According to the quant, whenever the MVRV MACD has been higher than 0.3, it has been a signal that BTC is overbought currently. On the other hand, values less than -0.3 have signaled underbought conditions.<\/p>\n
From the chart, it’s apparent that while these signals haven’t coincided with the cycle tops and bottoms, they have still correctly indicated some local tops and bottoms.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Research Firm Issues Warning For Bitcoin And ETH Investors Over DCG Situation<\/a><\/div>\n
Now, here is another graph where the analyst has highlighted how divergences between the price and the MVRV MACD can signal future trends:<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
Various divergences between BTC and the MVRV MACD | Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/pre>\n
“A divergence occurs when the direction of a technical indicator and the direction of the price trend are moving in opposite directions,” explains the analyst. In the graph, it’s visible that whenever the MVRV MACD has moved up inside the negative region while the price consolidates sideways or declines, a bullish divergence has formed for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n
Similarly, a bearish divergence has taken shape when the value of the crypto has been rising, but the indicator has been going down in the zone above zero. At present, none of these signals have formed in the current bear market<\/a> so far.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $16,800, up 1% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
Looks like BTC has stagnated after the rise yesterday | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Andr\u00e9 Fran\u00e7ois McKenzie on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A quant has broken down how the Bitcoin MVRV MACD oscillator could be used to check for signals in the price. Bitcoin MVRV MACD Oscillator As Price indicator As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, this metric can help detect both the lows and the highs in the price, as well as the greater trends. The “Bitcoin MVRV” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap and the realized cap. Here, the “realized cap” is a capitalization model for BTC that values each coin in circulation at the price at which it was last moved, rather than taking the same current BTC price as the value of all the coins, as the normal market cap does. Since the realized cap is sort of a “true” value model for the coin, its comparison with the market cap (in the MVRV) can tell us whether the coin is undervalued or overvalued at the moment. When the MVRV is greater than 1, it means BTC is overpriced right now, while having values below the threshold suggests it’s underpriced. Now, to use MVRV as a trading tool, the quant has taken the MACD oscillator of the indicator. A MACD oscillator is just the difference between the short-term and long-term exponential moving averages (EMA) of the metric in question. Here, these EMAs are the 50-day and the 100-day versions. Related Reading: Ethereum Surges 4% As Whales Show Elevated Activity The below chart shows how the Bitcoin MVRV MACD can be used for finding tops and bottoms in the price: The metric seems to have approached a value of 0 recently | Source: CryptoQuant According to the quant, whenever the MVRV MACD has been higher than 0.3, it has been a signal that BTC is overbought currently. On the other hand, values less than -0.3 have signaled underbought conditions. From the chart, it’s apparent that while these signals haven’t coincided with the cycle tops and bottoms, they have still correctly indicated some local tops and bottoms. Related Reading: Research Firm Issues Warning For Bitcoin And ETH Investors Over DCG Situation Now, here is another graph where the analyst has highlighted how divergences between the price and the MVRV MACD can signal future trends: Various divergences between BTC and the MVRV MACD | Source: CryptoQuant “A divergence occurs when the direction of a technical indicator and the direction of the price trend are moving in opposite directions,” explains the analyst. In the graph, it’s visible that whenever the MVRV MACD has moved up inside the negative region while the price consolidates sideways or declines, a bullish divergence has formed for Bitcoin. Similarly, a bearish divergence has taken shape when the value of the crypto has been rising, but the indicator has been going down in the zone above zero. At present, none of these signals have formed in the current bear market so far. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $16,800, up 1% in the last week. Looks like BTC has stagnated after the rise yesterday | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Andr\u00e9 Fran\u00e7ois McKenzie on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":514960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,84723,87449,1119,1144,87623],"class_list":["post-514945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-mvrv","tag-bitcoin-mvrv-macd","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-macd-oscillator"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nQuant Explains How Bitcoin MVRV MACD Can Signal Price Trends<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A quant has broken down how the Bitcoin MVRV MACD oscillator could be used to check for signals in the price. 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Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Quant Explains How Bitcoin MVRV MACD Can Signal Price Trends","url":"http:\/\/ktsl888.com\/news\/quant-explains-bitcoin-mvrv-macd-trends\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/ktsl888.com\/news\/quant-explains-bitcoin-mvrv-macd-trends\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andre-francois-mckenzie-iGYiBhdNTpE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andre-francois-mckenzie-iGYiBhdNTpE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1710"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin mvrv","bitcoin mvrv macd","btc","btcusd","macd oscillator"],"dateCreated":"2023-01-05T16:00:27Z","datePublished":"2023-01-05T16:00:27Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T08:53:19Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Quant Explains How Bitcoin MVRV MACD Can Signal Price Trends\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/ktsl888.com\\\/news\\\/quant-explains-bitcoin-mvrv-macd-trends\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/ktsl888.com\\\/news\\\/quant-explains-bitcoin-mvrv-macd-trends\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ktsl888.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/01\\\/andre-francois-mckenzie-iGYiBhdNTpE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ktsl888.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/01\\\/andre-francois-mckenzie-iGYiBhdNTpE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1710\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ktsl888.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin mvrv\",\"bitcoin mvrv macd\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\",\"macd oscillator\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-01-05T16:00:27Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-01-05T16:00:27Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T08:53:19Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/ktsl888.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andre-francois-mckenzie-iGYiBhdNTpE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1710","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/514945"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=514945"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/514945\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/514960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=514945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=514945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=514945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}