{"id":510430,"date":"2022-11-29T07:48:55","date_gmt":"2022-11-29T07:48:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/?p=510430"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:28:37","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:28:37","slug":"bitcoin-miner-capitulation-is-in-full-effect-how-long-will-it-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ktsl888.com\/news\/bitcoin-miner-capitulation-is-in-full-effect-how-long-will-it-last\/","title":{"rendered":"Historic Bitcoin Miner Capitulation In Full Effect – How Long Will It Last?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The collapse of the crypto exchange FTX is causing a historic event in the Bitcoin market. Yesterday, on-chain data signaled the second wave of a Bitcoin miner capitulation in one cycle.<\/p>\n

Historically, miners have had a massive impact on the BTC price. The now heralded miner capitulation will put further selling pressure on the Bitcoin price, which is experiencing a historically bad November, down 21%.<\/p>\n

On-chain data shows that the second wave of miner capitulation has now begun, suggesting further pain for the BTC price. As analyst Dylan LeClair wrote, the Bitcoin hash rate is starting to tilt here.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Miners Under Water<\/h2>\n

The 7-day moving average hash rate is now 13.7% away from its all-time high. Mining difficulty is expected to adjust by about -9% in a week, which will take some pressure off miners, at least in the short term.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin hash rate. Source: Twitter<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nevertheless, miner margins have been and continue to be massively squeezed since June, the first capitulation event in this cycle. Despite this, the hash rate still rose to an all-time high until recently.<\/p>\n

This, the increased mining difficulty, and the FTX-related price crash have pushed the hash price to its lowest level since late 2020.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Ethereum Price Key Indicators Point Firming Case For Recovery Above $1,250<\/a><\/div>\n

As Capriole Investments’ Charles Edwards noted yesterday, hash ribbons have confirmed the start of capitulation. “Triggered by the $10 billion FTX scam and subsequent collapse, bitcoin miners are now going broke and the hash rate is trending down,” Edwards stated.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin hash ribbons. Source. Twitter<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In the “Bitcoin miner net position change” chart, it can be seen that miners have been selling aggressively over the past month.<\/p>\n

“Combined with the decline in the hash rate and today’s hash band bear cross, this suggests that we are indeed in a phase of miner capitulation,” said<\/a> Will Clemente of Reflexivity Research.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin miner net change. Source: Twitter<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

How Long Will Miner Capitulation Last?<\/h2>\n

Something to keep in mind is that miner capitulation is usually the last stage of a Bitcoin bear market. In the 2018 cycle, the BTC hashrate continued to rise as the price reached the $6,000 mark until the final miner capitulation came at $3,000.<\/p>\n

In the current cycle, miners have already undergone a capitulation in June. They reduced their holdings by 4,000 BTC, equivalent to about $68 million, in the last two weeks.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin At $1,000: Looking Back At Nine Years Of Bull Run<\/a><\/div>\n

Prior to that, they had only begun a net accumulation trend in September 2022, betting that the bottom had been reached. However, they bet on the wrong horse and are now being severely punished.<\/p>\n

Historically, miner capitulation has lasted an average of 48 days, which would put an end to miner selling pressure in sight by mid-January 2023.<\/p>\n

However, the most recent capitulation ended only after two months, on August 18. The end marked the third longest capitulation in history. Bitcoin bulls should therefore be cautious in December and January, and watch the behavior of Bitcoin miners.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC saw a slight uptick and was trading at $16,481.<\/p>\n

\"BTC
Bitcoin price, 1-hour-chart. Source: TradingView<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The collapse of the crypto exchange FTX is causing a historic event in the Bitcoin market. Yesterday, on-chain data signaled the second wave of a Bitcoin miner capitulation in one cycle. Historically, miners have had a massive impact on the BTC price. The now heralded miner capitulation will put further selling pressure on the Bitcoin price, which is experiencing a historically bad November, down 21%. On-chain data shows that the second wave of miner capitulation has now begun, suggesting further pain for the BTC price. As analyst Dylan LeClair wrote, the Bitcoin hash rate is starting to tilt here. Bitcoin Miners Under Water The 7-day moving average hash rate is now 13.7% away from its all-time high. Mining difficulty is expected to adjust by about -9% in a week, which will take some pressure off miners, at least in the short term. Nevertheless, miner margins have been and continue to be massively squeezed since June, the first capitulation event in this cycle. Despite this, the hash rate still rose to an all-time high until recently. This, the increased mining difficulty, and the FTX-related price crash have pushed the hash price to its lowest level since late 2020. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Key Indicators Point Firming Case For Recovery Above $1,250 As Capriole Investments’ Charles Edwards noted yesterday, hash ribbons have confirmed the start of capitulation. “Triggered by the $10 billion FTX scam and subsequent collapse, bitcoin miners are now going broke and the hash rate is trending down,” Edwards stated. In the “Bitcoin miner net position change” chart, it can be seen that miners have been selling aggressively over the past month. “Combined with the decline in the hash rate and today’s hash band bear cross, this suggests that we are indeed in a phase of miner capitulation,” said Will Clemente of Reflexivity Research. How Long Will Miner Capitulation Last? Something to keep in mind is that miner capitulation is usually the last stage of a Bitcoin bear market. In the 2018 cycle, the BTC hashrate continued to rise as the price reached the $6,000 mark until the final miner capitulation came at $3,000. In the current cycle, miners have already undergone a capitulation in June. They reduced their holdings by 4,000 BTC, equivalent to about $68 million, in the last two weeks. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $1,000: Looking Back At Nine Years Of Bull Run Prior to that, they had only begun a net accumulation trend in September 2022, betting that the bottom had been reached. However, they bet on the wrong horse and are now being severely punished. Historically, miner capitulation has lasted an average of 48 days, which would put an end to miner selling pressure in sight by mid-January 2023. However, the most recent capitulation ended only after two months, on August 18. The end marked the third longest capitulation in history. Bitcoin bulls should therefore be cautious in December and January, and watch the behavior of Bitcoin miners. At press time, BTC saw a slight uptick and was trading at $16,481.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":457803,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119,19371,2990],"class_list":["post-510430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-capitulation","tag-mining"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Miner Capitulation Is In Full Effect, How Long Will It Last?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The collapse of the crypto exchange FTX is causing a historic event in the Bitcoin (BTC) market and its miners.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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Through his extensive work with ktsl888.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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