These Bitcoin Pricing Models Are Currently Near The Spot Price
In a new tweet, the on-chain analytics firm has pointed out how the three pricing models, the adjusted realized price, the short-term holder cost basis, and the 200-week MA, are all close to the asset’s value right now.To understand the first and second models here, the “realized price” needs to be looked at first. The realized price is a pricing model derived from the realized cap, which is a capitalization model that assumes that the “real” value of each coin in the circulating supply is not the spot price, but the price at which it was last moved.
As for the second model of interest here, the “short-term holder (STH) cost basis,” this metric keeps track of the realized price of specifically the investors who have been holding their coins since less than 155 days.
Here is a chart that shows how these Bitcoin pricing models have compared with the spot price during the past year:The price seems to be just above these models at the moment | Source:As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin adjusted realized price currently has a value of $25,300, while the short-term holder cost basis has a value of $26,000. Historically, these models have acted as both resistance and support for the price, depending on the wider trend. In bullish periods, they usually act as support so it’s possible that if the price drops deep enough to hit them, a rebound may happen.
The third line on the chart, the 200-week moving average (MA), is a model that aims to find the baseline momentum of the four year Bitcoin cycle. This line has also had some similar interactions with the price as the other two models.
The 200-week MA has a value of $26,300 right now, implying that it’s currently the closest line to the spot price. It now remains to be seen how the price interacts with these lines, starting with the 200-week MA, if a drawdown extended enough happens. A successful retest of these lines would naturally be a positive sign for the rally, but a drop under them may be a signal that a transition back towards a bearish regime has occurred.BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,000, up 1% in the last week.Looks like BTC hasn't moved much recently | Source: