In his latest titled “Crypto Outlook, June 2023,” Bloomberg’s Senior Macro Strategist, Mike McGlone, predicts more pain ahead for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market. McGlone argues that despite a rebound in prices in 2023, the risks for the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index remain tilted downward.
Is Bitcoin Doomed?
According to McGlone, cryptocurrencies face several headwinds, including the potential for a US recession, a potential stock bear market, vigilant central banks, and high interest-rate competition. These factors, combined with the speculative excesses that led to the 2021 peak, suggest that the outlook for the crypto market is bearish.
Furthermore, McGlone points out that Bitcoin weakening in May, along with copper and equities in China, is unusual compared to the stalwart Nasdaq 100 Stock Index. While the potential for the Nasdaq to lift all boats exists, it may contrast with still-rising Fed rate-hike expectations.
Additionally, McGlone suggests that Bitcoin, which is often referred to as digital gold due to its perceived status as a store of value, may not be able to outperform the traditional safe-haven asset in a US economic contraction. This is because Bitcoin is still relatively young compared to gold, which has been used as a store of value for thousands of years. As a result, investors may be more likely to flock to gold during times of economic uncertainty, rather than newer assets like Bitcoin.
Moreover, plunging commodities, producer prices, and bank deposits may serve as deflationary omens of the lags to Federal Reserve tightening. These factors suggest that the risks for the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index are tilted downward, and investors should be cautious.
As reported by NewsBTC on May 22nd, Mike McGlone highlighted the historical patterns of boom and bust in Bitcoin, which are closely tied to liquidity. According to McGlone, Bitcoin’s current price level of around $27,000 may be at risk of reversion, considering that it was only $7,000 at the end of 2019 before the massive liquidity pump in 2020.
McGlone’s analysis also indicates that Bitcoin’s downward trajectory, as demonstrated by its 52-week moving average, contrasts with the upward trend it experienced at the onset of the pandemic. This suggests that the cryptocurrency is susceptible to booms when liquidity is abundant but vulnerable to busts when liquidity is removed.
McGlone’s latest analysis aligns with his previous thesis that the outlook for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market is bearish, given the potential for a US recession, a potential stock bear market, vigilant central banks, and high interest-rate competition.
Is BTC About To Take Off?
On the other hand, Crypto Con, a well-known crypto analyst, has recently expressed his continued bullishness on Bitcoin, citing the Pi Cycle Top indicator as evidence of the cryptocurrency’s potential for a continued uptrend.
to Crypto Con, the Yellow 111days Moving Average (MA) has started to uptick, indicating that Bitcoin is experiencing a positive trend. Additionally, Bitcoin has been retesting the 111DMA line as support, rather than continuing on a parabolic trajectory, which is typically a sign of a market top.
Crypto Con acknowledges that sometimes the bounce can take some time, but he maintains that this is nothing but bullish for Bitcoin. This is because the Pi Cycle Top indicator is a reliable tool that has historically predicted major market tops and bottoms in the cryptocurrency market.
The Pi Cycle Top indicator measures the relationship between the 111DMA and the 350DMA, and when the two lines cross, it can suggest a potential market top or bottom. The fact that the Yellow 111DMA is showing an uptick suggests that Bitcoin may be headed for a market bottom, which is a bullish sign for investors.
At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Bitcoin, is trading at $27,000. Over the past 24 hours, BTC’s price has remained relatively stable, exhibiting sideways price action with a minor increase of 0.1%.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com