Bitcoin has been moving sideways in the past day after a 20% dropped at the start of the week. The first cryptocurrency by market was showing strong conviction to the upside, but ultimately the excessive greed in the market could have played against the bulls.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $46,875 with a 1.2% profit in the daily chart.
A recent by QCP Capital confirmed that the flash crash was preceded by an increase in leverage positions on the derivatives sector. The firm previously warned about the potential downside risk as derivatives were signaling “nervousness” amongst investors.
When the price of Bitcoin broke the $52,000 barrier, the outlook “worsened”, the firm said. In addition, there was a sentiment of “disbelief” in the market that the rally that took Bitcoin into those levels was unable to “fail”.
In previous months, May, June, and July, a similar situation occurred with a “Buy the rumor, sell the news” catalyzer, in this case the implementation of the Bitcoin Law in El Salvador. In addition to an increase in fair and uncertainty due to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) cracked down on crypto exchange Coinbase.
In that sense, investor Alex Wice took to Twitter to announced that he has “exited” his Bitcoin position. Wice believe the outlook in the market has changed with the recent crash.
The rally from near BTC’s price yearly open started driven by a fresh surge in institutional investment. Wice highlighted the participation of Alameda Research, the investment arm of crypto exchange FTX, as bullish factor previous to the crash. However, he :
Since this nuke, longs are no longer cozy. We’ve changed from up only to ball game – we update for nukes to be much more likely now. Overleveraging is back. Post bounce, longs are low edge. We could even goblin town.
Bitcoin Data Speaks, Will The Bears Take Back Control?
In that sense, Bitcoin follow two scenarios, more “crab like” price action in the coming days, as it did during May, and June, or a straight dropped most likely back into the $30,000 levels.
Analyst Ben Lilly has a correlation with the recent price action to the downside and a cool off in the non-fungible tokens (NFT) sector. As Ben Lilly pointed out, the EIP-1559 update as made Ethereum more susceptible to variations in on-chain activity.
Similarly, Ethereum was one of the cryptocurrencies leading the market during the rally. In addition, Bitcoin fundamentals and other indicators turned bearish suggesting a pullback, Ben Lilly added:
(…) even the morning of the drop we witnessed a transaction that tends to take place when a “by the dip” opportunity is likely to happen. This is what I mean when I saw a few odd transactions took place onchain that led us to believe some of this was premeditated.
Bitcoin could be at a turning point, according to the analyst. In the coming days, the fate of the bull-run could be decided if BTC’s price continues to trend to the downside to form a “Bull/Bear Divide”, as seen below.
In that context, long term BTC holders will become importance. Their activity, as measured by the Spent Output Age Bands (In pink below), could indicate a “liquidity exit”.
With that in mind, the analyst doesn’t rule out a potential short squeeze and more continuation if that holds, Ben Lilly added:
With a quick change in sentiment the market will sometimes prey on overly bearish behavior. Meaning price can quickly squeeze out shorts who entered late. Once this easy pickings scenario plays out we’ll see how the structure looks. If it’s a big squeeze then maybe we can get another attempt at $53k.
A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.
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