Bitcoin could be back on a downtrend as the bulls struggle to protect the $40,000 mark. The first crypto by market cap was rejected at around $44,500 and has been unable to reclaim previous highs as the bears threaten with pushing it back to the lows around $30,000.
As of press time, the first crypto by market cap trades at $40,160 with a 5.1% and 8.8% loss in the last day and 7 days, respectively.
The general sentiment in the crypto market has been quickly changing from fear to greed as Bitcoin shows signs of strength on low timeframes.
However, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for Fidelity, believes BTC’s price has remained rangebound since 2021 with a low at $30,000 and a high around $65,000. He believes the current price action is “mostly noise” and proposed a change in perspective.
As seen below, Timmer the Bitcoin demand curve as driven by the increase in the number of addresses holding a BTC balance above 0. This chart is going “up and to the right”, the expert said and suggests BTC will continue to see an increase in demand which could increase its market cap from its current $755 billion to $15 trillion by the end of the decade.
Turrien arrived at this conclusion by comparing Bitcoin to big tech company Apple and its network growth by applying Metcalfe’s Law. This principle states that the value of a telecommunications network is equivalent to two times its number of users.
By using this Law, Timmer deducted Apple’s estimated price and valuation from 1996 until today. In that period, Apple’s market cap and valuation were expected to grow by 53x, but the company presents a 1699x increase surpassing expectations by a long margin. Timmer said:
If Apple’s increase in market value should have been roughly the square of its growth in sales (53 to the power of 2), then we get an expected growth rate of 2855x for Apple’s market value. At 1699x, it’s in the ballpark.
Why Bitcoin Could Hit A $700K Price In The Next Decade
Conversely, Apple’s price has increased by around 1457x, Timmer said, since 1996 with a 30x increase in its price-to-sales ratio. By extrapolating the thesis to Bitcoin, the expert offered a prediction for its valuation. Timmer said:
Bitcoin’s valuation has increased 867x since 2011, while its price has increased 640,633x. If we apply Metcalfe’s Law and calculate the square of 867, we get 751,111. This is roughly in line with the 640,633x realized price gain.
Although Bitcoin and Apple are very different assets, the expert believes they are on a “similar path” when considering their network growth. As seen below, both Apple’s share and BTC’s price saw a massive appreciation in their very early stage.
Timmer concluded with two scenarios for the Bitcoin demand curve, they differ on their slopes”, the expert said, but aim at a similar long term growth with BTC’s price rising above $1 million after the year 2035.
A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.
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