The VWAP is an indicator that, as its full form suggests, calculates an average price for the cryptocurrency based on not just the changes in the price over the day but also the volume that was traded at these prices.
Normally, this volume is measured using the spot volume data provided by centralized exchanges. Still, in the case of Bitcoin, the blockchain is available for anyone to explore, so on-chain volume is used to calculate the VWAP instead.
The VWAP Oscillator, which is the actual metric of interest here, takes the ratio between the cryptocurrency’s spot price and the VWAP and represents it as an oscillator around zero.
Earlier in the month, Woo had pointed out how the Bitcoin VWAP Oscillator was forming a bullish divergence for the asset.
How the VWAP Oscillator looked like earlier in the month | Source:
As is visible in the chart, the Bitcoin VWAP Oscillator climbed up inside the negative territory after forming an apparent bottom back then. At the same time, the cryptocurrency’s price had been heading down instead.
In the past, such a setup has proven to be bullish for the coin, and the resulting bullish momentum usually lasts until the VWAP Oscillator tops out in positive territory. As such, the analyst remarked that the coin had a lot of room to run back then.
Since then, the price has experienced a recovery rally, potentially suggesting that the bullish divergence may be paying off. As Woo pointed out, the indicator has returned to the neutral mark after this run.
It looks like the value of the metric is making a break into the positive territory | Source:
Based on the fact that tops in the past have occurred after the metric peaks in the positive territory and based on the scale of these peaks usually, the analyst concludes, “this Bitcoin move is now at the halfway mark.”
As for how things could play out next, the analyst says,
Consolidation under all-time-high needs to happen for a little, then we see if the second leg gives us escape velocity to new highs which will open up the flood gates.
Woo has also shared a “risk signal” for Bitcoin, which shows where the asset is when looking at the bigger picture.
The data for the BTC risk signal over the last few years | Source:
BTC may be in that part of the cycle where risk begins to drive up as price reacts violently to capital inflows. “That’s where most of the fast gains happen,” notes the analyst.
BTC Price
Bitcoin had recovered above $71,000 earlier in the day, but the asset appears to have seen a pullback since then, as it’s now back below $70,000.
The price of the asset seems to have shot up over the past day | Source:
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, woocharts.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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